THE LAW OF AVERAGES produces some painful statistics for amateur sailors. This year, according to the law of averages, some of us will jam the dinghy painter around the propeller shaft. Some of us will drag anchor and go aground. Some of us will have fires in the galley. Some of us will lose a mast. Some of us will fall overboard. Some of us will drown.
There is no gainsaying these statistics. They are horribly real. They are average because they actually happen.
So what can you do to beat the law of averages? It’s quite simple really. You must turn yourself into an unaverage sailor. And you can do that by becoming a devout follower of my Black Box Theory.
You’ll find the long version over there in the column on the right. Just click on Black Box Theory. The short version is that I believe there’s a black box on every boat, a box that stores good-luck points. You earn these points by constantly doing small but seamanlike things to keep your boat in good order.
For example, if you sniff the bilges for fumes before pushing the starter button, you'll score a point, just as you will for taking a precautionary reef at nightfall or checking the expiration date on your rocket flares. Thinking and worrying about what could happen is also a good way to earn points – say, if the wind started blowing into your quiet anchorage at 40 miles an hour and the engine wouldn't start. If you take the time and trouble to put a couple of reefs in the mainsail before you retire for the night, you earn a point for the black box. If you get up at 0300 and go on deck in the pouring rain to check if your anchor is dragging, you earn a point.
But no matter how dedicated your seamanship, there are times when there is nothing left to do but batten down the hatches and pray. If you have a credit balance of points in the box, you'll be all right. The points withdraw themselves as needed and you will survive while others suffer a crueler fate. Afterward, of course, people will say you were lucky. But we know better. That “luck” was earned, maybe over quite a long period.
I have to believe that most amateur sailors don’t bother to do all the seamanlike things they should, and it’s because they’re most that they become the average. Your aim should be to become an unaverage sailor with the help of the Black Box Theory. Unaverage is good. The law of unaverages is on your side.
Today’s Thought
My soul is full of longing
For the secret of the sea,
And the heart of the great ocean
Sends a thrilling pulse through me.
— Longfellow.
Boaters’ Rules of Thumb, #217
How big can waves get? The U.S. Hydrographic Office says the relationship between wind speed (in miles an hour) and wave height (in feet) is approximately 2 to 1. In other words, a wind of 50 mph is capable of raising a 25-foot sea. Furthermore, the length of an average wave, from crest to crest, is about 20 times the height. So a wave 25 feet high would have a length of about 500 feet and would be moving at a speed (square root of length, times 1.34, remember?) of about 30 knots. If there is a current running against the wind, however, waves are inevitably shorter, steeper, and far more dangerous.
Tailpiece
MEN — don’t worry about your hair falling out. Think how awful it would be if it ached, and you had to have it pulled.
(Drop by every Monday, Wednesday, Friday for a new Mainly about Boats column.)
Showing posts with label black box. Show all posts
Showing posts with label black box. Show all posts
July 3, 2011
September 10, 2009
The Black Box revisited
(Check in here every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for a new Mainly About Boats column.)
OLD SCARFACE certainly stirred things up with his comments about John Rousmaniere’s book Fastnet, Force 10, in the last column. To my great surprise he elicited a comment from Mr. Rousmaniere himself — or possibly someone purporting to be him. I say surprise, because John Rousmaniere is a national authority on sailing and seamanship, probably America’s best-known marine writer and historian, and the author of 23 books. I am amazed that he would even know about this humble column, let alone read it. I can only presume he has commandeered a small army of Googlebot mercenaries who systematically crawl through the Internet, pouncing on every mention of his name or his books, and dragging them into the spotlight for his attention.
In any case, in his comment he made a good point:
“No storm destroys every boat, a lot of crews do things right (or at least keep their mistakes small), and the most important decision may be the one made long ago — to ignore the rating rule and buy a good boat.”
I agree. I think it can safely be said that the old International Offshore Rule (IOR) that dominated the deadly 1979 Fastnet race 30 years ago did nothing to enhance the seaworthiness of the smaller sailboats.
But there is another factor I’ve always believed in. It explains, for me at least, why some boats survive storms and others don’t. It’s the Black Box Theory. Many of you will know it already, so I won’t bore you with great detail here, but basically it’s a reward system for many small seamanlike acts.
I always imagine that every boat has a secret black box that collects the Brownie points you earn for every seamanlike action you take. Every time you check the oil level on the engine, no matter how awkward it is to reach the dipstick, you get a point. Every time you buy a real paper chart of an area you want to explore, you get a point. Every time you get up in the middle of the night and go on deck in the rain to check your anchor bearing, you get a point. For that matter, you also get a point for even having an anchor bearing to begin with. You get points (quite a few actually) for imagining what would happen on deck and down below if your boat were turned turtle by a large wave, and doing something about it. And so forth, ad infinitum.
Now, it can happen to any boat, no matter how well found and well handled, that a time will come when human skill and effort can do no more to rescue it from a perilous position. But if you have points in the black box you can spend them to ensure that your boat will survive. You don’t have to withdraw the points. They expend themselves automatically as necessary.
Other boats battling the same circumstances as you, but lacking points in their black boxes, are less likely to survive.
Those who don’t understand the mysteries of small boats sailing on big waters will say you were just lucky. And, depending on how you define luck, or good fortune, they may be right. What they don’t know is that you earned your luck the hard way.
When Vergil said fortune favors the bold, he wasn’t thinking about the sea. Good fortune on small sailboats favors the cautious, the organized, and those with enough imagination to wonder what the hell can go wrong next.
Today’s Thought
Shallow men believe in luck. … Strong men believe in cause and effect.
— Emerson, Conduct of Life: Worship
Tailpiece
A playboy is a man who summers in Maine, winters in Florida, and springs at blondes.
OLD SCARFACE certainly stirred things up with his comments about John Rousmaniere’s book Fastnet, Force 10, in the last column. To my great surprise he elicited a comment from Mr. Rousmaniere himself — or possibly someone purporting to be him. I say surprise, because John Rousmaniere is a national authority on sailing and seamanship, probably America’s best-known marine writer and historian, and the author of 23 books. I am amazed that he would even know about this humble column, let alone read it. I can only presume he has commandeered a small army of Googlebot mercenaries who systematically crawl through the Internet, pouncing on every mention of his name or his books, and dragging them into the spotlight for his attention.
In any case, in his comment he made a good point:
“No storm destroys every boat, a lot of crews do things right (or at least keep their mistakes small), and the most important decision may be the one made long ago — to ignore the rating rule and buy a good boat.”
I agree. I think it can safely be said that the old International Offshore Rule (IOR) that dominated the deadly 1979 Fastnet race 30 years ago did nothing to enhance the seaworthiness of the smaller sailboats.
But there is another factor I’ve always believed in. It explains, for me at least, why some boats survive storms and others don’t. It’s the Black Box Theory. Many of you will know it already, so I won’t bore you with great detail here, but basically it’s a reward system for many small seamanlike acts.
I always imagine that every boat has a secret black box that collects the Brownie points you earn for every seamanlike action you take. Every time you check the oil level on the engine, no matter how awkward it is to reach the dipstick, you get a point. Every time you buy a real paper chart of an area you want to explore, you get a point. Every time you get up in the middle of the night and go on deck in the rain to check your anchor bearing, you get a point. For that matter, you also get a point for even having an anchor bearing to begin with. You get points (quite a few actually) for imagining what would happen on deck and down below if your boat were turned turtle by a large wave, and doing something about it. And so forth, ad infinitum.
Now, it can happen to any boat, no matter how well found and well handled, that a time will come when human skill and effort can do no more to rescue it from a perilous position. But if you have points in the black box you can spend them to ensure that your boat will survive. You don’t have to withdraw the points. They expend themselves automatically as necessary.
Other boats battling the same circumstances as you, but lacking points in their black boxes, are less likely to survive.
Those who don’t understand the mysteries of small boats sailing on big waters will say you were just lucky. And, depending on how you define luck, or good fortune, they may be right. What they don’t know is that you earned your luck the hard way.
When Vergil said fortune favors the bold, he wasn’t thinking about the sea. Good fortune on small sailboats favors the cautious, the organized, and those with enough imagination to wonder what the hell can go wrong next.
Today’s Thought
Shallow men believe in luck. … Strong men believe in cause and effect.
— Emerson, Conduct of Life: Worship
Tailpiece
A playboy is a man who summers in Maine, winters in Florida, and springs at blondes.
May 17, 2009
Top up your black box
DID YOU KNOW there’s a black box on your boat? It’s invisible, but it’s one of the most important pieces of safety equipment aboard. It stores the points you earn for being a good sailor. And when you’re in trouble—when being a good sailor just isn’t enough—those points can save your boat and your life.
Once you know about the black box, you understand why some yachts sink in gales and some survive. Landlubbers talk about good luck; sailors know there’s no such thing. You have to earn your luck.
Every time you inspect the rigging, you earn a point that goes into the black box. Every time you check the running lights, you earn a point. Every time you take the bearing of an approaching steamer, every time you change the fuel filters … you get the idea.
When the weather turn unexpectedly bad, or during other moments of stress and danger when human skill and effort can accomplish no more, the points are cashed in as protection. They withdraw themselves, as needed, to ensure your survival.
Boats with no points in the black box frequently don’t survive. Landlubbers call these boats unlucky. But we know better.
(For more on this subject, click on Black Blox Theory over there on the right.)
Todays’ Thought
We must believe in luck. For how else can we explain the success of those we don’t like?
—Jean Cocteau
Tailpiece
“How was that gorgeous young secretary you took out last night?”
“Oh, not so good.”
“Jeez, you always were lucky.”
Once you know about the black box, you understand why some yachts sink in gales and some survive. Landlubbers talk about good luck; sailors know there’s no such thing. You have to earn your luck.
Every time you inspect the rigging, you earn a point that goes into the black box. Every time you check the running lights, you earn a point. Every time you take the bearing of an approaching steamer, every time you change the fuel filters … you get the idea.
When the weather turn unexpectedly bad, or during other moments of stress and danger when human skill and effort can accomplish no more, the points are cashed in as protection. They withdraw themselves, as needed, to ensure your survival.
Boats with no points in the black box frequently don’t survive. Landlubbers call these boats unlucky. But we know better.
(For more on this subject, click on Black Blox Theory over there on the right.)
Todays’ Thought
We must believe in luck. For how else can we explain the success of those we don’t like?
—Jean Cocteau
Tailpiece
“How was that gorgeous young secretary you took out last night?”
“Oh, not so good.”
“Jeez, you always were lucky.”
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